Iran Tells Houthis To Close Bab El-Mandeb Strait If US Strikes Power Plants
Our take
The recent communication from Iran to Houthi forces, instructing them to prepare for the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to potential U.S. strikes on Iranian power plants, represents a significant escalation of tensions in a region already fraught with instability. This development directly threatens a second crisis impacting Red Sea shipping lanes, following the ongoing disruptions caused by Houthi attacks targeting commercial vessels. The potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial chokepoint connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, would have profound implications for global trade, particularly for energy supplies. Considering previous actions, such as [3000 Filipino Seafarers Stranded In Persian Gulf As Iran Shuts Strait Of Hormuz Again], it is reasonable to anticipate significant logistical challenges and increased shipping costs should this scenario materialize. The situation underscores the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and the maritime domain, and the cascading effects of conflict on global supply chains.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait’s strategic importance cannot be overstated. It handles a substantial portion of global oil shipments, as well as other vital commodities. Disruptions here would exacerbate inflationary pressures and potentially trigger economic instability worldwide. The threat is compounded by Iran’s demonstrated willingness to exert influence through proxy groups, as evidenced by the persistent actions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy [Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Intercepts & Detains 4 Ships In Strait Of Hormuz]. The prospect of coordinated action between Iran and Houthi forces amplifies the risk and necessitates a comprehensive assessment of potential consequences. Furthermore, the ongoing efforts to develop alternative oil shipping routes, such as the agreements between U.S. firms and Iraq [U.S. Firms & Iraq Sign Deals Worth $ 60 Billion To Construct New Oil Shipping Routes Beyond Hormuz], while providing some diversification, will not immediately offset the impact of a closure in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. These projects require considerable time to complete and operationalize.
The potential for escalation is particularly concerning given the current climate of heightened regional tensions. The conflict in Gaza and the broader proxy war dynamics between Iran and its adversaries are creating a volatile environment where miscalculation or unintended consequences could quickly spiral out of control. The threat of retaliatory strikes on infrastructure highlights the fragility of the situation and the potential for a wider regional conflict. A closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would not only disrupt maritime trade but also further destabilize the region, potentially leading to increased humanitarian crises and displacement. The implications extend beyond purely economic considerations; a blocked strait would likely impact naval operations and freedom of navigation, further complicating international security.
Looking ahead, the situation demands careful monitoring and proactive diplomatic efforts. The interplay between regional power dynamics, the actions of non-state actors like the Houthis, and the responses of major global powers will be critical in determining the future course of events. A key question remains: how will international stakeholders balance the need to deter Iranian aggression with the imperative to prevent a broader conflict that could cripple vital trade routes and destabilize the global economy? The resilience of global supply chains and the stability of energy markets depend on the ability to navigate this complex and precarious situation with prudence and foresight.
Iran has told the Houthis in Yemen to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the United States carries out President Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges, Reuters reported.
The request was discussed by the leadership of Iran, and it has now been conveyed to the commanders of the Houthis, the report said. The final decision on whether to take action against shipping in the strait will be taken by representatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) based in Yemen.
According to a source close to the Houthis, they have already positioned missiles and drones near the waterway in Yemen’s highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden and are waiting for the order to start attacking commercial vessels.
The threat comes at a volatile moment in the broader US-Iran conflict. A ceasefire that was agreed on June 17 has essentially collapsed with the two sides trading strikes for several days in a row.
Trump briefly floated then dropped a proposed 20% fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the US Navy to re-impose a blockade on Iranian ports.
Trump went further in the rhetoric in a Fox News interview. “Next week they get into really bad because next week is the power plants. Next week the bridges, he said, adding that US forces would “knock out” Iran’s power plants and bridges unless Tehran returned to the negotiating table. He said he would “leave the energy targets to last”, but added the US would meet them in the end.
If they attack Bab el-Mandeb, it would open a second maritime front on top of the Strait of Hormuz, which is still mostly closed to traffic.
According to maritime trade analytics firm Kpler, around 7% of global oil production passes through Bab el-Mandeb. Any disruption there would simultaneously affect the two main oil export corridors of the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia has already started redirecting crude from the Gulf, shipping it across the kingdom through an east-west pipeline for export from Yanbu Port on the Red Sea. That work-around would itself be exposed if the Houthis moved against Red Sea shipping.
Separately, tensions have also risen between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia in recent days, after Saudi strikes on Sanaa airport prompted the Houthis to fire missiles at Saudi airports.
Whether Iran ultimately gives the order may matter less than the threat itself. Some analysts argue that simply keeping the option credible gives Tehran leverage over Washington without requiring an actual attack.
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