Iran Asks Houthis To Stand Ready To Block Red Sea Shipping If US Hits Power Infrastructure
Our take
The escalating tensions in the Red Sea, now reportedly including Iranian directives to Houthi forces to prepare for blocking shipping, represent a significant and measurable shift in maritime security dynamics. The potential for disruption to global trade routes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint, cannot be understated. This development builds upon recent actions by U.S. forces, which have included the redirection and disabling of vessels deemed non-compliant with a naval blockade against Iran, as detailed in US Marines Board Oil Tanker In Gulf Of Oman As Naval Blockade Against Iran Intensifies (Images). The situation is further complicated by the ongoing energy trade landscape, where the European Union continues to grapple with balancing sanctions against Russia with energy security needs, as exemplified by their recent LNG purchases, highlighted in EU Buys 9.97 Mt Of Russian LNG While Debating 21st Sanctions Package Against Moscow. The interconnectedness of these events underscores a broader pattern of geopolitical instability impacting maritime commerce.
The Houthis' capacity to disrupt shipping, coupled with the alleged Iranian involvement, presents a complex challenge. Their deployment of missiles and drones, as reported, suggests a level of preparedness that warrants serious concern. This isn't an isolated incident; the Black Sea has also seen intensified maritime conflict, with Ukrainian drone strikes impacting Russian naval assets, including oil tankers and gas carriers, as reported in Ukrainian Drone Strikes Hit 20 Russian Ships In The Black Sea. These parallel events demonstrate a trend of increased maritime risk across multiple key regions, potentially driven by wider proxy conflicts and strategic maneuvering. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait’s strategic importance—handling approximately 10% of global seaborne trade—means any significant disruption would have cascading effects on global supply chains, impacting energy prices, consumer goods, and broader economic stability. The validated risk of escalation is high, given the existing tensions and the potential for miscalculation.
From an ocean intelligence perspective, this situation highlights the need for real-time, integrated data ecosystems that can monitor maritime activity, predict potential threats, and provide actionable insights. Traditional methods of maritime surveillance are proving insufficient in the face of increasingly sophisticated asymmetric threats. The ability to calibrate sensor data from multiple sources—satellites, drones, and maritime vessels—and integrate it with geopolitical and economic data is crucial for understanding the evolving risk landscape. Longitudinal analysis of shipping patterns and maritime incidents can reveal vulnerabilities and inform proactive mitigation strategies. The current situation underscores the urgency of developing robust, empirical models to assess and respond to emerging maritime security threats.
Looking ahead, the question is not whether disruptions will occur, but rather the scale and duration of those disruptions. Continued escalation could lead to a full-blown maritime crisis, impacting not only commercial shipping but also humanitarian aid flows. The degree of Iranian involvement and the U.S. response will be critical determinants. Furthermore, the resilience of global supply chains – their demonstrated ability to adapt to past disruptions – will be tested. Observing the evolving diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, alongside the deployment of naval assets and the development of alternative shipping routes, will be key to understanding the long-term implications for global trade and maritime security.
Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi movement to be ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, if the United States attacks Iranian power infrastructure, three sources told Reuters, raising the risk of disruption to another key global energy shipping route.
The proposal has been discussed within Iran’s leadership and the message has been passed to the Houthis, according to two senior Iranian sources and a regional source familiar with the matter.
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, did not say how the message was conveyed or whether it followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat on Tuesday to strike Iran’s power infrastructure.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed after Iran shut the waterway following the conflict that began on Feb. 28, when Israel and the United States attacked Iran.
Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried around one-fifth of global energy supplies. A disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would put pressure on the Middle East’s second major oil export route, adding fresh risks for global shipping and energy markets.
A source close to the Houthis said the group has completed preparations to attack shipping by deploying missiles and drones near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The weapons have been positioned in Yemen’s highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden, and the group is waiting for orders to begin operations.
The source added that representatives of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who are already in Yemen, would decide when to move to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have risen sharply. On Monday, the Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia after accusing the kingdom of bombing an airport under their control, breaking a four-year truce between the two sides.
Torbjorn Solvedt, principal Middle East analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said the renewed tensions come at a difficult time for regional energy exports.
“If fighting intensifies and spills over into Red Sea export infrastructure and shipping, it will threaten the only major alternative route for oil exports from the region,” he said.
Two regional sources close to Riyadh said Saudi Arabia was taking threats from Iran and the Houthis seriously and believed the Yemeni group was now closely coordinating with Tehran over the Red Sea.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a significant share of Gulf oil exports has been diverted through a Saudi pipeline to the Red Sea. The route now carries about 7% of global energy supplies.
During previous Houthi attacks on commercial shipping linked to the Gaza war, major shipping companies diverted vessels around southern Africa, increasing voyage times and transport costs.
Saudi Arabia has also redirected about 70% of its energy exports through its Red Sea port of Yanbu, making the route increasingly important for regional oil exports.
Any attacks on shipping or export infrastructure in the Red Sea could further disrupt global energy supplies.
One regional source said Iran’s leadership was seeking to increase pressure on the United States by raising the potential economic costs through threats to Red Sea shipping and Saudi oil exports.
“Anybody with a firing rifle can interrupt the shipping. You don’t have to have sophisticated missiles to interrupt the shipping,” the source said.
Iran considers the Houthis part of its regional “Axis of Resistance”, which also includes Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’ite armed groups. While those groups have already become involved in the wider confrontation between Tehran and Washington, the Houthis have not formally entered the conflict.
The United States has long accused Iran of providing the Houthis with weapons, funding and training, including support channelled through Hezbollah. Tehran has denied those accusations.
References: Reuters, Timesnownews
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