low-carbon arctic shipping

Measuring carbon thresholds to chart Arctic shipping's low-carbon future

Melting Arctic ice is rewriting the map of global trade, and with it, the calculus of carbon. This study builds a two-level game model that captures the dynamic feedback between carbon taxes, voyage speeds, and route competition between the Northeast Passage and the Suez Canal. The findings are sobering: under severe warming, the Arctic route could handle 22 percent of freight traffic, yet an improperly low carbon tax risks triggering a rebound in emissions. Climate warming lowers the threshold for effective regulation.