US Claims Control of Strait of Hormuz as Iran Declares the Waterway Closed
Our take
The recent escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s claim of US control juxtaposed against Iran’s declaration closing the waterway, represents a volatile confluence of geopolitical maneuvering and potential economic disruption. This narrow seaway, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is a critical chokepoint for global energy markets, with an estimated 20% of the world’s oil transiting through it daily. The US assertion, seemingly backed by claims of having facilitated the passage of 100 million barrels of oil, needs to be viewed within the context of ongoing tensions and Iran’s repeated warnings regarding the waterway’s security. A recent claim by Donald Trump that the U.S. Navy escorted over 200 ships and 100 million barrels of oil through the strait [U.S Navy Escorted Over 200 Ships & 100 Million Barrels Of Oil] highlights the complex and contested nature of maritime operations in the region. Furthermore, the IRGC Navy’s reported attacks on ships attempting to “illegally pass through” the Strait of Hormuz [IRGC Navy Attacks Two Ships Trying To Cross Strait Of Hormuz ‘Illegally’] underscores the immediate threat to commercial shipping and the potential for miscalculation. The very act of claiming control, even with asserted successes, risks inflaming the situation and providing justification for further Iranian actions.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz extends beyond oil; it’s also a vital route for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other commodities. Disruptions to this flow have immediate and far-reaching consequences for global energy prices and supply chains. The US Navy’s increasing reliance on unmanned surface vessels, as evidenced by the recent rescue of pilots off Oman [US Navy Drone Boat Rescues Two Pilots Off Oman in First-Ever Sea Recovery], points to a shift in operational strategies, potentially intended to reduce risk to personnel while maintaining a presence in the area. However, the deployment of autonomous systems introduces new complexities, including the potential for cyberattacks and unintended escalation due to algorithmic errors or misidentification. The recent incidents, combined with the inherent vulnerability of chokepoints, highlight the fragility of global maritime trade and the necessity for robust risk assessment and mitigation strategies.
Analyzing this situation requires careful consideration of Iran's motivations. Beyond immediate security concerns, Iran’s actions can be interpreted as leveraging its control over this critical waterway to exert pressure in negotiations regarding its nuclear program and broader regional influence. The declaration of closure, while likely not a complete and permanent cessation of traffic, serves as a powerful signal of Iran’s willingness to disrupt global trade if its demands are not met. The US response, focused on asserting control and ensuring the free flow of commerce, risks entering a cycle of escalation. The data from ocean observation systems, including real-time vessel tracking and maritime traffic analysis, are critical to understanding the evolving situation and informing decision-making, but must be interpreted within a broader geopolitical context. Integrated data ecosystems, providing calibrated and validated information, are essential for accurate assessments.
Looking ahead, the stability of the Strait of Hormuz remains precarious. The potential for miscalculation and unintended consequences is high. The question becomes: how can international actors, including the United States, Iran, and regional partners, de-escalate tensions and establish a framework for ensuring the safe and reliable passage of vessels through this vital waterway? The long-term implications of relying on increasingly autonomous naval systems in contested waters also warrant careful consideration. Continued monitoring of maritime activity, coupled with diplomatic efforts, will be crucial to preventing a broader conflict and mitigating the economic fallout of any disruption to this essential global trade route.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared this week that the United States, not Iran, controls the Strait of Hormuz — even as Tehran moved to shut the waterway to all shipping.
Hegseth made the claim on Wednesday outside U.S. Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida. He told reporters that American forces had kept commercial traffic and oil flowing through the strait despite Iranian resistance. “The United States of America controls the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “We’re able to move oil in and out and other things with partners and have done so now for weeks and weeks in ways the Iranians don’t want to acknowledge.”
He put the volume protected by the U.S. at more than 100 million barrels of oil. President Donald Trump offered the same figure on Truth Social and added that over 200 commercial ships had passed through safely. “This wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran,” Trump wrote.
Hegseth described the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports as “ironclad.” He said it had stopped almost 140 ships trying to move in or out of those ports, and that another tanker had been disabled the day before. That vessel was the Palau-flagged M/T Settebello, struck by precision munitions in its engine room after its crew ignored repeated instructions, according to news agency IANS. The strike has since drawn a formal protest from India, which has reported casualties among the tanker’s Indian crew.
Tehran tells a very different story. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait “closed to all vessels, including oil tankers and commercial ships,” in a statement on its Telegram channel, CNN reported. Any ship that attempts the passage, the IRGC warned, “will be targeted.”
The dueling claims landed amid a fresh round of fighting. CENTCOM said its forces launched another wave of self-defence strikes on multiple targets in Iran at 5:15 p.m. ET, at Trump’s direction. Iranian media reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, Qeshm Island and other areas near the strait. The IRGC Navy said it had struck two vessels attempting to transit Hormuz.
Roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil normally passes through the narrow channel between Iran and Oman, making it one of the most important chokepoints in global trade.
Hegseth also mentioned about the U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopter that went down near the strait this week. He said the two pilots were “in good shape” and praised their performance in what he called a “contested environment,” adding that Iran “doesn’t really know how to see” the vessels the U.S. is moving through.
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